Privately held businesses have higher export expectations compared to others, international market research agency Grant Thornton has said.

The company’s Business Report on this year’s turnover and export forecasts, which surveyed over 7,200 PHBs across 36 economies, found Viet Nam has high expectations with 91% of the enteprises expecting exports to increase this year.

India is the runner-up with 71%, followed by Botswana with 70%. Both South Africa and Armenia have recorded rates of 54%. Others fear the worst with Hong Kong at minus 48%, Taiwan, minus 44%, Japan, minus 23% and Spain, minus 21%.

Generally, PHBs across the world expect weak increases in exports with a balance of plus four per cent (+4%), limited opportunities to increase turnover (+11%), prices (+14%), and a marginal drop in profitability (-5%). The global figures mask wide variations among different economies, the report says.

The results show a significant downward trend on last year even for economies still expecting turnover to rise, with a drop of over 50 percentage points from 2008’s global average for turnover expectations.

Regionally, the EU has emerged as the gloomiest trading bloc with regard to turnover, with a balance of just plus five per cent expecting turnover to rise, compared to the most positive, Latin America, at plus 30%.

But in terms of export expectations, however, the EU was the most optimistic at plus 11 per cent, with the Asia Pacific region the most pessimistic, expecting no change from 2008.

“Turnover is driven by domestic sales and exports, both of which are impacted by consumer demand and investment levels at home and abroad,” said Kenneth Atkinson, Managing Director of Grant Thornton Viet Nam.

“Although the overall results of the survey are nor surprising, it is difficult not to conclude that PHBs in many economies have yet to feel the full force of the global downturn and may be in for a shock.”

“PHBs in 26 out of 36 surveyed economies, including many in the EU, expect their export to rise, but with the largest importing economies contracting, the question is where those export markets are going to be found,” he added.

He also noted that PHBs should be on alert for opportunities to buy distressed assets at a bargain price, but only when it fitted with long term strategic objectives.

“Nobody can predict when the upturn will arrive, but we can be sure that the new commercial environment will look very different and the key is to have a plan that is continously reviewed and adjusted as circumstances change,” he said. (VNS)