Analysts have identified three remarkable things appearing in the first month of the year that could affect the economy’s performance in 2009.

After decreasing the last three months of 2008, which had never occurred before, the CPI saw another strange thing in January 2009.

The month saw the CPI rise by 0.32% only over the previous month, though the consumption demand during Tet should have made it higher than during other months of the year. The 0.32% increase represents the lowest increase so far.

The commodities which saw the highest price increases in previous years like food and meal services just saw modest price increases in January. Meanwhile, food prices have decreased, and transport and post service fees have also decreased.

Analysts have predicted that the CPI in February will also see a slight increase.

This could signal low increases of CPI in 2009 as a whole. Statistics show that the regional financial crisis ten years ago made the CPI skyrocket in 1997 and 1998, and then increase slowly in 1998-2001.

The second thing is the low trade deficit, both in terms of value and proportion.

In January 2009, Vietnam exported $3.8bil worth of products, a figure which proves to be much lower than in January and December 2008. Crude oil exports brought $424mil in turnover, apparel $550mil, and footwear $350mil.

Imports in the first month of 2009 were also low, partially because the demand for material imports for local production remained low.

Therefore, the trade deficit in January 2009 was just $300mil, the lowest level since October 2008.

The proportion of the trade deficit related to exports was just 7.9%. The figures have led to predictions that exports, imports and the trade deficit for 2009 as a whole will be at a low level. This also means that 2009 will be a very difficult year for exporters.

The third thing is that traffic jams were less serious than during previous Tets, which has been attributed to many reasons. One of the reasons is that many workers in industrial zones returned to home villages, but have not or will not return to their works.

Warnings can be taken from the third thing. First, production and business development will face difficulties. Second, unemployment has emerged as a big problem. (TBKTVN)