The Vietnamese economy is forecast to bounce back in 2009 despite its growth rate of 6.23% in 2008 – a 10-year record low – in the context of world financial meltdown, according to Chinese professor Gu Yuanyang.

Prof. Gu, who is a senior expert of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and has studied the Vietnamese economy for years, granted an interview to Beijing-based VOV correspondent Trung Nghia.

What do you think about the Vietnamese economy in 2008?

Viet Nam has made significant changes since it carried out the Doi Moi (Renewal) process in 1986. Many of its achievements have been acknowledged by the international community. Five or six years ago I wrote an article highlighting Vietnam’s achievements, forecasting that the country would be a newly emerging nation in Asia and what has happened has testified to my projection.

However, the national economy has revealed weaknesses, especially in 2008. This does not mean the country slipped into economic recession. Immediately the Government adopted 8 major solutions to deal with the situation, which began to take effect. Inflation was gradually brought under control and exports increased considerably, helping reduce the trade deficit, while foreign investment attraction hit a record high of more than US$60 billion. Even though the economy grew at 6.23 percent, 0.77 percent lower than the set target, it was an impressive figure given the downward trends around the globe.

What are the prospects for the economy in 2009?

The global economic crisis is expected to reach its climax this year and major economies such as the US, Europe and Japan will continue to bear the brunt of the turmoil. As a consequence, Viet Nam and China will have to cope with new challenges because both countries are export-driven economies. However, I believe that the Vietnamese Government will continue to introduce new solutions to ensure the national economy grows at a steady rate.

Recently the government decided to depreciate its currency against the US dollar to boost exports and to invest US$6 billion in infrastructure development. In addition, Vietnam remains an attractive market because it has the second largest number of consumers in Southeast Asia after Indonesia.

I think if Viet Nam achieves a GDP growth rate of 6.5 percent in 2009, it will be another impressive result of the country.

What measures do you think both Vietnam and China should apply to boost bilateral trade and minimise the effects of the global financial crisis?

The fact is that the economic and trade ties between the two neighbouring countries have grown and flourished in recent times. I am confident that we can realise the target of raising bilateral trade to US$25 billion in 2010 as agreed upon by our top leaders.

To meet this target, the two countries should speed up the implementation of the “Two corridors and one economic beltway” programme to facilitate trade exchanges. At the same time, they should accelerate the establishment of the China-ASEAN free trade area as scheduled. Both countries can consider signing a bilateral free trade agreement and using the Chinese yuan as the main currency in trade exchanges. Last but not least, they can also study and sign an agreement on the exchange of their currencies within the framework of the Chiang Mai agreement signed in Thailand.

What is your message to the Vietnamese people on the Lunar New Year holiday?

Though I live in China, I have special feelings for Vietnam. I consider Vietnam my second hometown. I believe that Vietnamese people will reap greater success in 2009. (VOV)